Most BFCM shoppers who hit a “Sold out” page won’t buy an alternative, so a stockout costs you customers you’ve already paid to acquire. Replace “Notify me” with a sign-up that locks in the deal, nurture and retarget those shoppers while you restock, announce the restock with full force, then turn the people who waited into subscribers or repeat buyers.
For about fifty weeks out of each year, completely selling out is most D2C founders’ biggest fantasy. “We literally can’t keep up with demand” feels like the sort of hyperbole usually reserved for chancers on Dragon’s Den. But during Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM), that signal means something very different.
These stockouts aren’t purely validation for your brands; they’re also a once-a-year opportunity you’ve absolutely sprayed up the wall.
BFCM is driven mostly by new customers. If you were only selling to existing ones, the heavy discounts and ad spends probably wouldn’t be worth it. And because every brand in your category sees the same surge, selling out says less about your brand than the scale of the event.
Previous research has shown that around seven in ten customers who can’t purchase the product they want won’t purchase another product. Maybe they turn to the other six brands in your category also offering 30% off; maybe they’re staging a one-person protest against your inventory planning.
The point is those are customers you’ve won (and likely paid through the teeth for) who never make a purchase. And this isn’t some niche problem for brands posting double-digit growth: most companies’ BFCM forecasts were off by more than 15% in 2025.
Most 3PLs would encourage you to build a mitigation strategy. We would too, and we’d strongly suggest you use ours. But it’s also important to accept that stockouts are always a possibility, and create a marketing plan to soften the blow.
Think about how a BFCM shopper actually reaches your product page. They’ve seen an ad, clicked through and arrived with their card half out of their wallet. Then they see “Sold out”.
Most will bounce almost immediately; you might get a few seconds if they’re particularly tired or thinking about dinner. So you need to direct that flash of disappointed attention into something new and exciting to keep them engaged and make a conversion.
Our team recommends a four-step system to do that:
Most sold out product pages feature a “Notify me” button, and who doesn’t love being…notified about things?
The Notify button works fine for existing customers who are set on a product. It works less well for one who’s bouncing about looking for BFCM deals and wants the rush of actually buying something.
You need to give them something more tantalising than the promise of future admin.
Create a button that lets customers lock in your BFCM discount: click here, give us your email address, and when the product’s back you’ll get first-access and the same price you would’ve got today.
That immediately makes the conversion point more compelling. Plenty of eCommerce customers were already expecting to wait a few days for their purchase to arrive; an extra little delay might not be so bad.
Omnisend’s analysis of 27 billion emails found back-in-stock emails have the highest conversion rate of any automation, at 6.46%. The trick is getting more people to sign up in the first place, and making that sign-up feel like progress rather than a consolation prize.
The goal is then to optimise every aspect:
A stockout shows your customers the product is popular. Turn that into an active selling point:
It’d be nice to think clicking your Lock-In button was a sacred agreement, but there’s at least a chance customers will carry on using social media while they wait for your product.
How do you make sure their wandering eyes aren’t won over by a competitor while your stock’s being replenished?
A nurture campaign built around BFCM customers is your best bet. But before you build that, there are some legal questions to wrap up.
Someone who asks to hear when a product is back has agreed to exactly that. Whether you can send them anything else is less clear-cut.
ICO guidance says that browsing a website isn’t enough to trigger the “soft opt-in”, although an enquiry about a particular product could be. The simplest fix is a clear, unticked box on your sign-up form asking whether they’d like to hear from you in the meantime. If in doubt, check with whoever handles data protection for your business.
Once you have that, you can start sending out content.
Use email or SMS sequences to send regular content:
Your sign-up form won’t catch everyone. Plenty of shoppers will bounce straight off the sold out page, and retargeting ads are how you reach them.
This is one of the best ways to optimise your BFCM returns: you’ve already paid to get these people to your site once. Retargeting gives that spend a second chance to pay off.
Even if customers don’t jump ship to a competitor, there’s a good chance their heads will be filled with selfish stuff like their own jobs and families and life aspirations. The arrival of your promised restock could end up a bit of a non-event.
When you announce the restock, it needs to have the full force of your marketing behind it: email alerts, ads, and a strong message that reminds everybody you couldn’t even get this s**t last week.
Start with your BFCM sign ups:
Then really let loose on a full-scale promo campaign that includes:
As we’ve said before, the real prize at BFCM isn’t a sudden sales spike; it’s the opportunity to win lasting customers.
Somebody who waited for your product has already shown more commitment than one who grabbed it on impulse. That makes your restock sign-ups prime candidates for a subscription or a repeat-purchase offer.
Make the second purchase part of the first by:
The stockout has already done some of your persuading. These customers waited for you, so a small extra incentive can be enough to turn one order into a habit.
But if your products aren’t the kind people rebuy, don’t force it. Focus instead on reviews and referrals, so the customers you won back bring a few more with them.
D2C founders should absolutely try to forecast demand and prep their inventory accordingly. But if things don’t go quite how you expect, there should always be a backup plan.
These four steps give you the best chance of winning back customers you’d otherwise lose to a stockout. And if you want a fulfilment partner who’ll tell you exactly when your restock will be ready to ship, talk to us.
Replace the “Notify me” button with a short sign-up that lets shoppers lock in the Black Friday price and get first access when the product is back. Give a concrete restock date you’ve checked with your 3PL, and use the sell-out as social proof.
Someone who asked to hear when a product is back has agreed to exactly that. To send anything else, add a clear, unticked box to your sign-up form asking whether they’d like to hear from you in the meantime, and check with whoever handles data protection for your business if in doubt.
Give your sign-ups an early access window at the price you promised, send them email and SMS with one reminder before the offer expires, then launch a wider campaign across ads, organic social, email and your site using the sell-out as the hook.
Offer a subscribe-and-save upgrade on top of the reserved price in the restock email and order confirmation, send one-off buyers a well-timed “running low?” reminder, and make pausing or cancelling easy. If your products aren’t rebought, focus on reviews and referrals instead.
To have clear and long-term visibility of our stock’s status with Inventory Analysis is enormously powerful.
Selling out at BFCM is common. What happens next decides whether you keep the customer you paid to win.
Turn the flash of disappointment on a sold out page into a sale, now or after the restock.
Replace “Notify me” with a short sign-up that locks in the BFCM price and first access, backed by a concrete, honest restock date.
Check consent, send light and useful email or SMS content while you restock, and retarget everyone who viewed a sold out product.
Give sign-ups early access at the price you promised, then launch the comeback across ads, social, email and on site.
Offer subscribe-and-save or a “running low?” nudge to the customers who waited, or focus on reviews and referrals.
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