[.blue]5 trends & predictions[.blue] for BFCM 2023

August 11, 2023

min read

We cover the key Black Friday-Cyber Monday trends and predictions for 2023 that eCommerce businesses should be aware of to maximise sales.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) trends shift every year. The last few BFCM trade periods have been particularly dynamic in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated supply chain issues – not to mention record-high inflation rates that have had a profound impact on how we shop. These factors make it even more important for you to dial into this year’s Black Friday trends, so you can better prepare for this lucrative shopping season and even capitalise on trends that may positively influence your eCommerce business year-round.  

What is predicted for Black Friday & Cyber Monday 2023?

1. Consumers expect big discounts

Although inflation is on the wane, many shoppers are still reeling from its effects compared to pre-pandemic times and, therefore, continue to shop more thoughtfully. This is evidenced by research from KPMG that shows 55% of consumers say they have reduced their non-essential spend so far in 2023. We know that consumers wait for BFCM discounts to make savings on certain purchases – often using the Black Friday weekend to buy gifts for the festive season – which means big discounts will be expected again this year.  

Adobe reported that BFCM discounts hit record highs in 2022, peaking at an average of 25% off the listed price on Cyber Monday. If we consider this in relation to this year’s BFCM period, a 5% or 10% discount on products may not be attractive enough to convert. Offering great deals is important but it must be done strategically to protect your revenue. Many eCommerce businesses concentrate their best discounts on bundles, which increases the average order value (AOV) while still being attractive to bargain hunters.

2. The biggest Black Friday & Cyber Monday yet

While many shoppers chose to stay at home and shop online in 2020 due to pandemic-induced restrictions, they were more willing to venture outside the following year. As a result, eCommerce sales in the US alone dipped from $9 billion in 2020 to $8.9 billion in 2021, according to SaleCycle. However, eCommerce sales bounced back in 2022, with a record-setting $9.12 billion spent online. It is worth noting that Cyber Monday remains the biggest shopping day for eCommerce, with another chartbusting $11.3 billion spent just in the US in 2022.  

Given this trajectory, we anticipate that 2023 will be the biggest BFCM yet, with Cyber Monday likely to see higher order volumes, making it the ideal day for eCommerce businesses to offer their best discounts. It is important to leverage your sales data from last year to accurately forecast demand and plan accordingly. The last thing you want is to be caught without enough inventory to meet the increased demand during BFCM, so make sure you reorder from your suppliers and get stocked up well in advance.  

3. Most online shopping is done on mobile

Unsurprisingly, more Black Friday and Cyber Monday purchases happen on mobile devices than ever before. According to Shopify, 73% of sales made on the platform during BFCM 2022 were made by mobile, compared to 71% in 2021. Interestingly, mobile usage varies across the BFCM weekend, with Adobe reporting that 55% of sales came from mobile devices last year on Thanksgiving, when people are more likely to be shopping on-the-go. That’s compared to 43% on Cyber Monday, when people are back to work and shopping on a desktop.

This year should be no different when it comes to online orders made by mobile. As such, it is vital to ensure your website it optimised for a mobile-first shopping experience, which starts with testing how it works on different devices such as smartphones and tablets. Following a mobile-first approach applies to marketing too, where you can encourage customers to sign up to SMS reminders or push notifications, ensuring they are the first to know about any upcoming BFCM deals and encouraging them to shop immediately.  

4. Marketing efforts to start earlier than ever

There is increasingly more competition for shoppers within eCommerce, especially at a time when consumers are more likely to be comparing prices to ensure they secure the best deals. Therefore, many online businesses will be preparing and launching their BFCM marketing campaigns early this year. You don’t want to get left behind, so start planning your campaigns now if you haven’t already, which includes determining the discounts you will be offering, preparing social media posts, and creating a calendar of email and SMS notifications.  

It is common practice for eCommerce businesses to start communicating with customers and teasing offers four to six weeks in advance of BFCM – sometimes, even earlier! This applies to your SEO activity too, which should begin in the summer, as optimised pages take time to rank on search results pages. In this regard, make sure you are providing good-quality, helpful information for your users, including accurate product descriptions that utilise relevant keywords. You can find more SEO tips in our guide on how BigCommerce can help with your SEO strategy.

5. A marathon sales period from summer’s end to the New Year

Many eCommerce businesses experience a peak in demand by the end of each summer, as consumers shift their spending from holidays to products. As such, you are likely to see an increase in sales from September onwards, placing increasing importance on having a robust logistics system in place to handle the increased demand. This starts with collaborating closely with suppliers and leveraging demand forecasting tools to maintain optimal stock levels, so you avoid underselling or overselling.  

Moreover, you may decide to partner with a trusted third-party logistics (3PL) provider like Zendbox to alleviate the pressure of order fulfilment during a frenzied shopping period when you want to be focused on other business-critical areas like marketing. The impact of BFCM will also echo well into the New Year, as gift-related returns extend throughout January. This necessitates a reliable returns management system that will ensure resaleable items are made available to customers quickly to prevent a backlog and maintain maximum customer satisfaction. Ultimately, Black Friday-Cyber Monday is a marathon, not a sprint.

Aligning your BFCM strategy with emerging trends

The Black Friday and Cyber Monday landscape is always evolving, making it more important for eCommerce businesses to stay attuned to emerging trends and consumer behaviours. For instance, significant BFCM discounts resonate under an uncertain economic climate, propelling shoppers to be more discerning with their spending. The increase in mobile shopping adds another dimension to online retail, placing additional importance on delivering a seamless shopping experience across all platforms. By aligning your BFCM strategy with trends such as these, you can position your online business for success and capitalise on the opportunities that this major shopping event presents.  

Looking to optimise your BFCM logistics? Zendbox can help with your eCommerce fulfilment needs! Simply fill out our form to get started.

Micah George
Marketing Specialist at Zendbox

Micah assists in developing and implementing innovative marketing campaigns that promote the products and services at Zendbox. She also produces articles, eBooks and other useful resources to help online retailers optimise their eCommerce operations and grow their business.

Further Reading

ready to take control?

Automate your ecommerce fulfilment with Zendbox.

Get started


Simple pricing based on volume of orders. No hidden fees.
Get in touch

Have any

We’ve been doing this for a long time. We might have your answer here.